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Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 66.4% | +9.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.9% | -5.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 36.7% | -10.0 |
| Fire Suited | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.9% | -8.3 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Wind Tristan | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dredging Streams | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tide Diviner | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mire Reparation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |